UNDESIRABLES?

UNDESIRABLES?

I haven’t written on politics in recent months because events have had an unbelievable element (you could just about guarantee that whatever was most unlikely would come to pass.) It is difficult to poke fun at something that would be hilarious if only it weren’t so serious. One cannot really castigate the Americans for being so stupid as to elect Trump, when we have ended up with Brexit (which was not, I believe, our intention.)

We voted blindfolded for Brexit with no real understanding of what it would mean. Although I do hold it against the politicians for not unearthing more facts rather than just attempting to frighten us into voting as they desired, I think as the complexities of the matter unfolds that it would have been impossible to predict accurately what was likely to happen. We still don’t really understand what the outcome will be and our politicians have no idea either. Matters are too complex and inter-related and unpredictable. It’s rather like a meeting of the Mafia with too many Families present.

I watched Nigel Farage interviewed by Piers Morgan. In spite of his dismal reputation, I think Morgan is one of the finest interviewers operating today. I always find him almost more interesting to watch than the interviewee. He has enough empathy and charm to lead the person into dangerous areas of their hinterland before they realise where they are headed (in spite of their wary experience and skill in being interviewed); he actually listens to what they say and will pause to explore anything interesting that turns up; but for all he participates in the conversation, when you watch him you can see that throughout he also retains an editorial detachment.

Although I have never voted for Ukip, I can understand why people did. Farage, who is I think genuine in that he sincerely believes what he says and is not particularly motivated by personal gain, is an interesting character. I have never heard him say anything which I personally found offensive. I do not think wishing for us to have control of immigration, is in any way racist; nor is a desire for Britain to remain recognisably British in culture and language, welcoming in-comers but expecting them to speak English and to recognise that while their history enriches our own, ours is the dominant culture, and we wish it to remain so. If they so disapprove of our culture, why have they come here? They should go somewhere else that is more to their liking.

No doubt there are undesirables within Ukip, but they also lurk in every other political party.

And talking of undesirables, did I hear Tony Blair being so bold as to talk to us – actually offering advice – on Brexit? Does he not realise that we have left him unchallenged for answers to the charges against him only because we are ashamed he was our prime minister and we have not got the stomach to endure the humiliation of going through all that again? Advice for Tony Blair. Don’t talk to us. Don’t comment on our affairs. Don’t come here. Don’t presume to give us advice. We don’t want your advice. We took it before and look where it got us. What you should do is lie very low, forever, in case our anger overcomes our shame, and we come after you.

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STANDING IN A PLACE OF GRACE

STANDING IN A PLACE OF GRACE

I’ve been thinking on the nature of democracy which, while an imperfect institution, is better than any known alternative. I was rather alarmed to hear people (good people in my estimation) stating that the result of the referendum ought to be disregarded. If you profess to be a democracy, the will of the people has to be accepted, even if it were by only one vote. Otherwise it’s the thin edge of the wedge: reject one result because you deem it unsuitable or inconvenient and you could end up in a one party state before you could say Vladimir Putin.

David Cameron seemed, when he started out, an example of the best you can expect from the Tories. Courteous and calm, with compassion, having suffered grief and loss in spite of his privileged background, loyal to his friends, untouched by financial or sexual scandal, you thought as he took office, he’ll do, and good luck to him too. Yet he has proved to be that most worrying of failures – an incompetent, and of poor judgement. He has gambled with our future stability and well-being – and lost – but even had he won, the risks he took were not worth what he might have gained.

Referenda would appear to be a blunt and unsubtle instrument. In the Scottish referendum on Independence, Cameron he did not lose outright. But the putting of the question and the size of the vote that it attracted effectively legitimised the Independence position, and strengthened their case even though they did not win that vote. The issue has certainly not gone away. I was surprised on our recent travels in Scotland to see the Saltire flying all over the place, and a fair number of car stickers saying, Ask me now and I’ll say Yes. It was apparent that people who a year ago were vehemently antagonistic to the idea of independence were far more relaxed about it now. It is my belief, if the question keeps being put in its present form, that the Scots will eventually vote Yes and then it will not be possible to deny them. It is undeniably the case that the question can be put however many times it takes, and regardless of the intervals, until the desired answer is given, but the electorate only has to say Yes once, for the outcome to be virtually irrevocable. Westminster should have remembered this. There are two other factors that were overlooked. The electorate believes in fair play, and it does not respond submissively to bullying.

We have seen with referenda that the electorate will vote Leave or Remain as instructed, but that it is not necessarily giving those answers to the questions which it was asked.

My guess is that so far as Brexit is concerned, London and the South being prosperous and near Europe largely voted Remain it being convenient for them. Scotland voted Remain to the last county and it has always been pro-Europe as a counter-balance to England, but the Scots also voted Remain in support of independence. The Irish in Northern Ireland voted for Remain in support of a United Ireland.

The English Midlands and Northern counties voted Leave in a spirit of dissatisfaction with Cameron’s government; and English coastal areas voted Leave because of their despair over having to cope with an unending influx of migrants with no government acknowledgement of their difficulties or help with the accompanying problems.

I’m quite sure that a fair proportion of those people who voted Leave for the reasons I have argued, did not actually expect that the overall vote would be to Leave and so got a result that was unexpected. Protest votes are dangerous and best kept for bi-elections!

George Osborne, of unlamented memory, was always described as being a wily strategist, which clearly was NOT the case, since the outcome here has been a catastrophe for him. But you cannot enjoy such a reputation for no reason. I’ve come to the conclusion that to be a good strategist, you need to be able to predict the reactions of a wide variety of people, including ones unlike yourself. People, as I have attempted to argue, vote from different motivations. Some vote for self interest; some vote altruistically; some vote in hatred or prejudice; some vote in family tradition. George Osborne, I suggest, understood extremely well the turpitude of his shoddy colleagues (of all parties) in Westminster, but he had no understanding of the hopes and dreams his fellow countrymen carried in their secret hearts.

Every incoming British prime minister, I believe, sets out with the goodwill of the British people.   Mrs May, I think, has so far conducted herself (and God knows I have no sympathy for the Tories) so that she still stands in that place of grace where we will give her the benefit of the doubt and wish success to her endeavours. Let us pray then that she continues as she has begun, for she is going to need all the good will she can muster to steer us through the rough times ahead.

THE EU REFERENDUM

I’m heartily sick of the whole business of the EU Referendum.     You can’t switch on the television without some pundit telling you how to cast your vote and forecasting catastrophic consequences for the country and perdition for you personally if you cast your vote the ‘wrong’ way.      The American president came and told us to vote to stay in or America would no longer smile upon us.   We hadn’t noticed that much gain from heir smiles up until now, and I suspect (and hope ) that a general reaction was, And what business is it of yours?

Going back to the groups attempting to influence the decision, I’ve come to the conclusion that NONE of them have the least idea what the outcome will mean for the country, and so they’re commandeering certain facts. proposed future actions, predicting the reactions of ‘our brothers in Europe’ and translating these nebulous results into a forecast.   There’s no proving or disproving these scenarios, of course, so they can be made with relative immunity except that the protagonist knows he’s just made it up and looks stressed.

Talking about self induced stress, into this toxic mixture wanders one A Blair on Andrew Marr this morning.   I couldn’t believe that he would be so bold (Is he talking to us?   Well, tell him we’re not listening.)   He told  us we should go to war in Iran because they had weapons of mass destruction, and how wrong was he about that?   He should go back to whichever tax haven is harbouring him these days and lie low and hope we never come looking for him.

Coming out of the EU won’t solve the problems of migration.    The reasons we are having these problems include

  1.   world over population
  2.   extreme poverty of some countries compared with others
  3.   instability of Middle East (to which we have contributed) rendering formerly pleasant countries uninhabitable
  4.  religious intolerance.

None of these will be improved by our exit from the EU.

Cameron has been hoist by his own petard.   He announced the Referendum to appease the rabid right wing dogs of his own party, and now they’re running wild in packs and threatening to destroy him.

Whatever your view, go out and vote.   It might just make a difference.